How Trump’s tariffs are likely to impact the salmon, shrimp and tilapia markets
How Trump’s tariffs are likely to impact the salmon, shrimp and tilapia markets
US consumers of tilapia and salmon – as well as the producers of these species in China and Canada – are likely to be the biggest losers in the seafood space if President Trump goes ahead with his planned tariff hikes. So explains Rabobank’s Gorjan Nikolik, following Trump’s decision to increase tariffs on Chinese tilapia imports from 25 to 45 percent and to introduce a 25 percent tariff on Canadian goods.
Given that 82 percent of the 209 million pounds of frozen tilapia that were imported into the US last year came from mainland China, it’s likely that the new 45 percent tariff will have a huge impact on the affordability of – and demand for – this product. And, given the scale of the volumes involved, it’s unclear if and when it might be possible for other exporters to make inroads into this shortfall. Although Indonesia could be poised to benefit and build on the 22 percent growth it experienced last year, Nikolik points out, it’s only exporting a tenth of the volume of China. Meanwhile Vietnam might be able to make up some of the shortfall with pangasius – there was a 36 percent increase in pangasius imports when the tilapia tariff was 20 percent. However, as Nikolik warns, Vietnam has a $123 billion trade surplus with the US, making it a potential target for high US tariffs in the future.
Shrimp is the largest species consumed in the US and also the largest seafood import item. The two leading exporters, India and Ecuador, have very little trade surplus with the US and thus are less likely to targeted by tariffs, at least based on that criteria. And India, the number one supplier to the US, is also a major geopolitical ally for the US in Asia. Given the elastic supply of shrimp. even if there is a tariff on some of the other producers such as Vietnam, then the others can fairly easily fill in the supply gap. After years of suffering from countervailing and anti-dumping duties, at the moment it looks like shrimp may be the species least likely to be impacted.
Above article are excerpt from:
Amid the uncertainty, Pioneer Group always focuses on supplying high-efficient and cut-of-edge equipment for our clients to overcome challenges and cost reduction. We’re at your disposal via:
Email : sales@pioneer-tw.com
Website : https://www.pioneer-tw.com/contact
