Kontali: Global vannamei production to ramp up again in 2025
Both India and Ecuador are expected to continue increasing farming volumes throughout this year and next, while Chinese and Indonesian supply is stagnating. With farmed vannamei prices in the gutter around the world for nearly two years now, you would be forgiven for expecting downward pressure to halt production growth in major shrimp farming countries. Yet, according to Norwegian seafood analytics firm Kontali, further increases in global vannamei harvest volumes are expected both this year and next.
Presenting at the recent Shrimp Summit in Chennai, India, Kontali analyst Erwin Termaat noted that three of the five largest producing countries – Ecuador, India, and Vietnam – are all continuing to ramp up volumes despite the current demand crisis.
“El Nino hasn’t proven to have significant effects on production directly, but what is has done is decreased rainfall, especially in the Andes region where it’s normally quite high, making hydropower less reliable in the country, and making Ecuadorean farmers struggle a bit with increasing costs of production.” “But it’s not hampering production volumes that much at the moment,” he stressed, noting that Ecuador’s vannamei harvest volumes are expected to exceed 1.4m metric tons in 2024.
The Norwegian firm also uses data from feed mill partners for its harvest projections, as feed sales offer a reliable proxy of future harvest volumes. This year, Termaat said, Kontali is projecting a global harvest of 5.7 million metric tons of farmed vannamei LSE, a figure that is expected to rise roughly 7% to 6.1m metric tons next year.
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