Rabobank: Global fishmeal shortage, sharp price volatility likely to come ‘sooner than expected’

Rabobank: Global fishmeal shortage, sharp price volatility likely to come ‘sooner than expected’

Global fishmeal demand is rapidly on track to becoming inelastic as supplies are stretched thinner with each passing year, according to Rabobank analyst Novel Sharma. With fishmeal supplies roughly flat from year to year, around 75% of the total volume was used by aquaculture back in 2013. Fast-forward a decade, and Rabobank’s data shows that rising prices have pushed pork and poultry out of the market, leaving aquaculture with a 91% share of the market. “By 2032, it’s highly likely there will be a shortage, but it may actually come sooner,” said Sharma.

As sustainability requirements also increase, less of the total fishmeal supply will be available to use as well. Price shocks in the last two years have also exposed how volatility is increasing, to an extent that it’s starting to affect the valuation of farm and feed companies in the eyes of investors. “Recent fluctuations are just short term dynamics, but we believe this can become a recurring problem,” Sharma continued. “This was realized a few years back, but the shortage might come sooner than expected, so the urgency should be a bit more” he said. “Right now, the risk is being taken by novel ingredient producers and the feed formulators, but if this risk is shared, it’s only going to be beneficial down the line.”

Above article are excerpt from:

https://www.undercurrentnews.com/2025/03/04/nasf-2025-norways-long-term-salmon-growth-ambitions-still-set-it-apart-for-investment-says-cermaq/

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